KINGFISHER INVESTMENT RESEARCH


KINGFISHER INVESTMENT RESEARCH



Monday, February 9, 2026

Oliver Bullough: Everybody Loves Our Dollars: How Money Laundering Won.

 

 

Oliver Bullough about his latest book: Everybody Loves Our Dollars: How Money Laundering Won. 

(Dirty Money is EVERYWHERE But Our Governments Don't Care)

Aaron Bastani talks to Oliver Bullough about his latest book: Everybody Loves Our Dollars: How Money Laundering Won. Bullough explains how money laundering, as a global phenomenon, is estimated to be worth trillions of dollars a year. What makes such industrial-scale crime even possible is, ironically, the basic infrastructure that permits globalized trade in the first place: a basket of important currencies, centering on the American dollar. 

So while the White House talks about the war on drugs, or the war on crime, the currency being issued by the Federal Reserve - America’s bank - is what makes much of that crime profitable at all. It turns out, according to Bullough, that while elected officials talk tough, they generally fail to take necessary steps to curb the global flow of dirty money. While completely eliminating laundering may never be possible, making a start is easier than you think. 

What is money laundering, and why should you care about it? How does it look different in places like China and Russia when compared to the United States or Europe? Is it really like the TV shows? What do vape shops, NFTs and luxury watches all have in common? And is rampant criminal activity much more common, and closer to home, than we are led to believe?

00:00 Intro 03:14 Trillions of Dollars Laundered Each Year 07:50 Money Laundering Is Getting Easier 12:16 We’re Losing the Fight Against Money Laundering 15:46 What TV Depictions of Money Laundering Get Wrong 21:41 Bicester Village and Smuggled European Luxury Goods 26:32 The Vancouver Model: Chinese Gangs, Gamblers, and Drug Money 31:57 The Rise and Inefficacy of Debanking 39:28 The Islamophobia of Debanking 45:32 The Paradox of Bank Notes 56:59 Are We Living in Times That Are Perfect for Criminals? 1:01:13 Tether: The Most Valuable Company You’ve Never Heard Of 1:07:37 Why Right-Wingers Love Crypto 1:10:36 NFTs 1:11:26 Governments Are Completely Failing to Tackle Money Laundering 1:14:45 Vape Shops and Compliance 1:17:33 Money Laundering is Everywhere 1:21:51 Policy Solutions


https://youtu.be/Qd_ZjRGFGOw


Gemini Summary:

 This video discusses the global phenomenon of money laundering, estimated to be between 2 and 5 trillion US dollars annually (4:08). Oliver Bullough, author of Everybody Loves Our Dollars, explains that despite government efforts to combat crime, the very currencies issued by major economies, particularly the US dollar, provide the infrastructure for this illicit activity (1:30).

Key discussion points include:

Scale of the problem: Money laundering is a massive parallel financial industry, far larger than commonly recognized, and its profits often fuel other serious crimes, including terrorism (7:09-7:45).

Ease of money laundering: While traditional methods like opening bank accounts with fake IDs are harder, the online world and the movement of value through goods like luxury watches and NFTs make laundering easier and harder to detect (7:50-21:11).
Ineffectiveness of current efforts: Despite significant resources allocated to combating money laundering, current strategies, which heavily focus on bank accounts, are largely ineffective. This leads to the "debanking" of hundreds of thousands of ordinary people, often from marginalized communities, due to overly cautious compliance measures (13:46-14:11, 31:57-32:32, 42:03-44:32).

Government complicity: Governments, particularly the US, benefit from the global use of their currency, which inadvertently supports money laundering (52:32-54:05). There's a lack of political will to implement effective solutions, despite the devastating impact on vulnerable populations (1:11:26-1:12:21).

Policy solutions: Bullough suggests simple yet impactful solutions like discontinuing large denomination banknotes (e.g., £50 notes) and properly resourcing law enforcement agencies to tackle financial crime at its systemic root, rather than solely relying on banks (1:21:51-1:24:55).

The "Vancouver model" describes a money laundering scheme where Chinese gamblers in Vancouver, unable to move money out of China, would receive large quantities of cash from Canadian criminal gangs (often drug dealers). The gamblers would then lose this cash in casinos, and their debt would be paid by shipping drugs from China to the Canadian gangs, completing a "circle of value exchange" that circumvents traditional financial systems and makes it difficult for authorities to identify as conventional money laundering.


Here are some videos related to the topic of money laundering and Oliver Bullough's work:

  • Oliver Bullough | Moneyland & The Cancer Of Kleptocracy from Curious Worldview Podcast delves into Oliver Bullough's book "Moneyland" and the concept of kleptocracy.
  • Moneyland by Oliver Bullough - Waterstones exclusive edition provides an overview of Bullough's book, focusing on money laundering and shell companies.
  • Moneyland: illicit finance features Oliver Bullough discussing London's role in the global financial system as explored in his book "Moneyland."
  • Moneyland: The Invisible Nation Where $13 Trillion Disappears from Shadow State Files examines the phenomenon of global wealth discrepancies and how it relates to illicit financial flows.
  • "Where There's An Oligarch, There's A Brit": How The UK Enables Global Financial Crime by The Majority Report w/ Sam Seder features Oliver Bullough discussing how Britain facilitates global financial crime.

https://youtu.be/HHDMOFSXPSk



 
Gemini Summarize the video

This video discusses the global phenomenon of money laundering with author Oliver Bullough, whose book Everybody Loves Our Dollars delves into the topic. Money laundering is estimated to be between 2% and 5% of global GDP, amounting to $2 to $5 trillion US dollars annually (3:56).

Key discussion points include:

Ease of money laundering (7:50): Despite stricter regulations like those preventing opening bank accounts with fake IDs, the anonymity of online transactions and the use of cryptocurrencies have made money laundering easier.

Ineffectiveness of current efforts (12:16): The fight against money laundering is largely failing, partly due to outdated approaches that focus primarily on bank accounts while criminals use other methods like luxury goods and trade.

Misconceptions from TV shows (15:46): Fictional depictions often misrepresent money laundering by focusing on Western methods involving shell companies and bank transfers, ignoring the more prevalent global methods that involve moving value outside the traditional financial system.

Alternative methods of value transfer (19:46): Bullough explains that value can be moved through tangible assets like luxury watches, which can be bought, transported, and sold in another country, bypassing financial scrutiny.

The "Vancouver Model" (26:32): This model illustrates how Chinese gangs use gambling in casinos to launder drug money, where cash is delivered to gamblers who then lose it, with the debt repaid through drug shipments. This method avoids traditional banking systems.

Debanking and its paradox (31:57): The rise of debanking—banks closing accounts due to compliance concerns—has significantly increased, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. This often disproportionately impacts marginalized communities and humanitarian organizations due to the stringent and often flawed anti-money laundering regulations.

Tether and cryptocurrency's role (1:01:13): Tether, a stablecoin, is highlighted as a significant tool for money laundering due to its ability to facilitate transactions outside traditional banking systems, especially for sanctioned entities.

Government failure and potential solutions (1:11:26): Governments are criticized for failing to tackle money laundering effectively, often outsourcing the responsibility to banks. Bullough suggests policy solutions such as eliminating high-denomination banknotes (e.g., 50-pound notes) and properly resourcing law enforcement agencies to combat financial crime, particularly in the realm of crypto. He emphasizes that tackling money laundering is crucial for addressing street-level crimes that rely on these illicit financial systems.

 
How do casinos facilitate laundering?

The video explains that casinos can facilitate money laundering, particularly through the "Vancouver Model." In this model, Chinese punters would travel to Vancouver to gamble but couldn't access their money from China due to capital controls. They would then take delivery of large quantities of cash from Canadian criminal gangs, often drug dealers, and gamble with it (27:12).

The speaker clarifies that the gamblers would lose much of this cash, but the debt incurred from gambling would be paid by shipping drugs from China to the Canadian criminal gangs (27:25). This creates a circular exchange of value where criminals deliver cash to gamblers who then lose it, but the overall system allows for the movement and legitimization of illicit funds through drug shipments, effectively bypassing traditional banking systems. (28:08 - 28:21)



Why is global financial crime growing?

How do current anti-laundering efforts backfire?
What are the economic consequences of money laundering?
The video explains that money laundering, estimated to be between 2% and 5% of global GDP, or $2 to $5 trillion US dollars annually, primarily functions as the support industry for all acquisitive crime worldwide (3:56 - 4:13).

According to the speaker, the economic consequences include:

Enabling further crime: Money laundering underpins the entire criminal economy, allowing "the world's worst people" to legitimize their wealth and continue activities like terrorism, cartel operations, and human trafficking (4:42 - 5:29).

Massive victimization: It leads to an "unimaginable scale of devastation" for vulnerable people, as seen with push payment fraud, which costs the UK about a billion pounds a year, representing less than 1% of the money laundered through the City of London annually (6:14 - 7:28).

Increased criminal profits and more crime: By making money laundering cheaper, as in the case of Chinese gangs connecting supply and demand for cash, the profits for criminal gangs become much greater. This, in turn, leads to more profit in crime and therefore more crime, which is the opposite of the intended goal of tackling money laundering (30:30 - 30:47).

Costs borne by everyone: The global money laundering system costs "a huge amount of money, which is cost on all of us. We all pay that" (1:12:37 - 1:12:45).

Disrupting legitimate individuals and organizations: It victimizes already marginalized people by kicking them out of the financial system through practices like debanking (1:12:45 - 1:12:49).

***********************************************************

From the publisher:

From the bestselling author of MONEYLAND and BUTLER TO THE WORLD, a revelatory new anatomy of global money laundering, the crime that makes crime pay

Without money laundering, few crimes of acquisition would be worth the trouble. South America's drug cartels would be stuffed without it, as would Nigerian kleptocrats, Afghan terrorists, American tax evaders and a whole bestiary of human (and animal) traffickers the world over.

And yet, estimates of the dirty portion of world GDP have held steady at 2%-5% for decades. All efforts at legislation, diplomacy, prosecution and compliance have been a complete flop. It's not a lack of will to stamp it out. It's a lack of insight. So join bestselling investigative journalist Oliver Bullough on a perspective-altering adventure through the flipside of the global economy.

In the criminal world, cash is still king (in fact, crime might now be the main thing cash is good for, and even why it still exists). Barter is pretty good too: vast, continent-wide exchanges of everything from luxury handbags to baby eels support a triangular drug trade linking Europe to the Far East. Cryptocurrencies flow through paper ledgers that would make a Florentine merchant feel at home.

And the system works. Whether you're a fraudster, a cartel boss, a corrupt politician, a kleptocrat or a terrorist mastermind, your options to move and hide your money are more secure and more impenetrable than they have ever been. There has never been a better time to be a criminal. It's time that changed.


Orion Publishing Co
29 January 2026
ISBN: 9781399618090
 

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Jay-Z and Warren Buffett Full Interview (original uncut)

 

Jay-Z and Warren Buffett Full Interview (original uncut)

Jay-Z, Warren Buffett and Steve Forbes discuss the role of 'chance' throughout a career, and why it plays a big part in getting to do what you love. This interview was videotaped at Warren Buffett's Omaha office in 2010.


Show transcript

https://youtu.be/nRI1yp8FCLY?si=YjAjaQDJok2WvzYP



Monday, July 21, 2025

"Material World" By Ed Conway



"Material World" explores the significance of six essential materials—sand, salt, iron, copper, oil, and lithium—that are foundational to modern civilization and our daily lives.

Key Themes and Materials

In "Material World," Ed Conway delves into the critical role that six raw materials play in shaping our world. 

These materials are:

Sand: Essential for construction and technology, including silicon chips.

Salt: Vital for food preservation and various chemical processes.

Iron: The backbone of infrastructure and manufacturing.

Copper: Crucial for electrical systems and modern technology.

Oil: A key energy source that powers industries and transportation.

Lithium: Increasingly important for batteries in electric vehicles and renewable energy storage.

Conway emphasizes that while we may feel we live in a digital, "weightless" world, our lives are deeply rooted in these materials. 

He notes that more materials were extracted from the earth in recent years than in all of human history before 1950, highlighting the growing demand for these resources.


Author's Perspective
Conway embarks on a global journey to explore how these materials are sourced, processed, and utilized, revealing the intricate networks and technologies involved. 

He discusses the environmental and geopolitical implications of resource extraction, urging readers to consider the sustainability of our material consumption.

Goodreads+1
Reception and Impact
The book has been well-received, being named a New York Times Book Review Editors' Choice and an Economist Best Book of the Year. Critics praise Conway's engaging narrative and insightful analysis, making complex topics accessible to a broad audience. The book encourages readers to rethink the value of everyday materials and their impact on civilization.

 Conclusion
"Material World" is not just a study of raw materials; it is a reflection on how these elements shape economies, cultures, and technologies. Conway's exploration invites readers to appreciate the foundational resources that build our world and the challenges we face in managing them sustainably.


Wednesday, June 25, 2025

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham: A Book Summary




 

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham: A Book Summary

https://youtu.be/T92PubzJtTw?si=efV6AQ2OxZhx5EK6


Friday, January 31, 2025

‘It’s Like ChatGPT And Wikipedia Had A Baby’: Perplexity AI’s CEO On Building Personalized Search


 
 Perplexity AI’s CEO On Building Personalized Search

“It’s like ChatGPT and Wikipedia have a baby”, said Aravind Srinivas, CEO and cofounder of Perplexity, said of his search engine at Imagination In Action’s ‘Forging the Future of Business with AI’ Summit in April 2024. On this panel, Srinivas talks about building a better search, the future of AI for enterprises, and why getting a PHD and starting a business are similar. 

https://youtu.be/w8M76fuyn8o



What chracterizes an investment in gold versus silver? by Gemini

 



What chracterizes an investment in gold versus silver?
  

Investing in gold versus silver is a nuanced decision, as each metal has its own unique characteristics, drivers, and risks. Here's a breakdown of how they differ:

Gold:

Characteristics:

Store of Value: Gold is primarily considered a safe-haven asset and a store of value. It's often sought after during times of economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical instability. It tends to hold its value well over long periods.


Monetary Role: Historically, gold has played a role in monetary systems, which continues to influence its perception as a reliable asset. Central banks hold gold reserves as part of their international reserves.


Industrial Use: Gold has some industrial uses, mainly in electronics and dentistry, but these account for a smaller portion of its demand compared to investment and jewelry.


Lower Volatility: Generally, gold is less volatile than silver, meaning its price swings tend to be less drastic. This can make it more appealing to risk-averse investors.


High Price: Gold is significantly more expensive per ounce than silver, meaning you'll need a larger initial investment for the same amount of weight.


Limited Supply: Gold has a relatively limited supply, which can contribute to its price stability.


Liquidity: Gold is a highly liquid asset, meaning it's easy to buy and sell in various forms (bullion, coins, ETFs).


Hedging Power: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

Investment Drivers:

Economic Uncertainty: Gold tends to rally when investors are worried about the economy, stock markets, or geopolitical risks.


Inflation: It's often seen as a hedge against inflation because it historically maintains its purchasing power during periods of rising prices.


Interest Rates: Generally, low or negative real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation) tend to be positive for gold.


Dollar Strength: Gold and the US dollar often have an inverse relationship. When the dollar weakens, gold tends to rise.


Central Bank Activity: Central bank buying and selling of gold can impact its price.

Silver:

Characteristics:

Industrial Metal: Silver has a much larger industrial demand compared to gold, used in electronics, solar panels, medical equipment, and other applications. This makes its price more sensitive to industrial cycles.


Volatility: Silver is significantly more volatile than gold. Its price can fluctuate sharply, offering both potential for larger gains and losses.


Smaller Price: Silver is much less expensive than gold, making it more accessible to investors with smaller budgets.


Dual Nature: Silver is often described as a "dual nature" metal, having characteristics of both a precious metal and an industrial commodity.


Larger Supply: Silver has a larger global supply than gold.


Less Liquid than Gold: While still relatively liquid, silver markets aren't as deep as gold markets.

Investment Drivers:

Industrial Demand: Silver's price is heavily influenced by the strength of the global economy and industrial production. Increased industrial demand can lead to price appreciation.


Technological Advancements: New technologies that require silver can boost demand.


Economic Growth: Silver tends to perform well during periods of economic growth and expansion.


Inflation: Like gold, silver can act as a hedge against inflation, though its performance can be less consistent.


Dollar Strength: Like gold, silver often has an inverse relationship with the US dollar.


Speculation: Due to its higher volatility, silver is more prone to speculative trading.

Here's a table summarizing the key differences:

Feature Gold Silver
Primary Role Store of Value, Safe Haven Industrial Metal, Speculative
Volatility Lower Higher
Price Higher per ounce Lower per ounce
Industrial Use Low High
Monetary Role Higher Lower
Liquidity High Good
Supply Limited Larger
Investment Driver Economic Uncertainty, Inflation Industrial Growth, Technology


Which is Right for You?

The best metal for you depends on your individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon:

Choose Gold if:

You're a risk-averse investor looking for a safe haven asset.


You want a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and currency devaluation.


You're looking for a stable, long-term store of value.


Choose Silver if:

You're willing to take on higher risk for the potential of higher returns.


You believe in the growth of industrial demand for silver.


You have a longer investment horizon and are willing to ride out volatility.


You are interested in a speculative trade.


Diversification: Many investors choose to hold both gold and silver as part of a diversified portfolio. This allows them to potentially benefit from the different characteristics and drivers of each metal.

Important Considerations:

Storage: Both gold and silver need secure storage, which may come with costs.


Tax Implications: Be aware of the tax implications of buying and selling precious metals in your jurisdiction.


Market Research: Do your own research and understand the factors that influence the prices of gold and silver before investing.


Professional Advice: Consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

In conclusion, understanding the distinct characteristics of gold and silver is crucial before investing in either. Both metals can be valuable additions to a portfolio, but they should be chosen strategically based on your individual financial goals and risk tolerance. Remember that no investment is without risk.
 
https://aistudio.google.com/prompts/146OANRD8kujXMloggr9WszF2rKBEOAp8

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Silver Price In 2025: What Investors Need To Know



 


With silver prices consolidating between $27 and $33 per ounce in recent months, Jeffrey Christian provides CPM Group's detailed forecast for silver markets in 2025. 

Jeff looks at investment demand for both EFTs and physical silver and discusses its importance and why it is the primary driver of silver prices, as well as the factors that influence it.

The video concludes with a look at the macroeconomic factors driving markets, including inflation concerns, government deficits, and geopolitical instability across the U.S., Europe, and Asia, all contributing to heightened investor interest in precious metals. With projections pointing to a volatile but upward-trending markets.


https://youtu.be/ozp4B76cYj8

Perplexity answers: What factors are driving the bullish outlook for silver in 2025





What factors are driving the bullish outlook for silver in 2025

 

Sources
Silver Forecast: Can XAG/USD Surpass $35 in 2025? - FOREX.com


forex

Silver Price Forecast: Top Trends for Silver in 2025 | INN


investingnews

Silver Price In 2025: What Investors Need To Know - YouTube


youtube
 


Answer:

The bullish outlook for silver in 2025 is driven by several key factors:

Industrial Demand Growth:Silver's critical role in green energy applications, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles, is expected to sustain robust industrial demand. This aligns with global energy transition efforts, making silver indispensable for renewable technologies168.

Supply Deficit:A persistent supply-demand imbalance is a major driver. Analysts forecast a significant deficit as global silver production struggles to meet rising demand. Limited mining output and constrained recycling efforts exacerbate this gap, putting upward pressure on prices246.

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors:Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties (e.g., inflation concerns, government deficits) are increasing silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, potential weakness in the U.S. dollar could further support silver prices by making it more affordable for international buyers
137.

China's Economic Recovery:As one of the largest consumers of silver, China's economic rebound is expected to boost industrial and precious metals demand. Improved monetary stimulus measures in China could significantly support silver prices14.

Investment Demand:Investment interest in silver is projected to rise sharply due to its undervaluation relative to gold and its historical performance during periods of economic volatility. Analysts predict increased purchases of physical silver and ETFs, which could further drive prices upward3
These factors collectively support projections of silver reaching $35–$40 per ounce in 2025, with potential for further gains depending on market conditions28.

 





Related
How might China's economic recovery specifically impact silver prices

What are the potential effects of US monetary policy on silver demand

How significant is silver's role in green energy applications for its future

What geopolitical tensions could continue to drive silver prices upward

How might supply shortages influence silver prices in 2025


ChatGPT answers: What is the concensus thinking of silver analysts on the outlook for the metal?

 Analysts hold a generally optimistic outlook for silver in the coming years, with several forecasting notable price increases:

  • InvestingHaven projects that silver will reach between $48.20 and $50.25 per ounce in 2025, with new highs anticipated between 2026 and 2027.

  • UBS has set a year-end 2025 price target of $36 to $38 per ounce, advising investors to consider long positions to capitalize on the expected recovery.

  • Coin Price Forecast predicts that silver will start 2026 at $35.22, rise to $39.02 within the first six months, and finish the year at $45.76, representing a 48% increase from current levels.

  • Scottsdale Bullion & Coin reports that major institutions like Citigroup and Saxo Bank have set 2025 silver price targets at $40 per ounce, while JP Morgan forecasts $36 per ounce.

These projections are influenced by factors such as increased industrial demand, particularly in solar panel production, potential supply constraints, and broader economic conditions. However, it's important to note that some analysts express caution due to potential risks like weak industrial demand and economic slowdowns in key markets such as China.

In summary, while the consensus among analysts leans toward a bullish outlook for silver, they also advise considering potential risks and market dynamics when making investment decisions.

Perplexity answers: What is the concensus thinking of silver analysts on the outlook for the metal?



What is the concensus thinking of silver analysts on the outlook for the metal?

Answer

The consensus among silver analysts for 2025 is generally bullish, with expectations of silver reaching US$35 per ounce due to supply shortages and increasing demand. After this peak, a slight pullback to US$30 is anticipated, followed by another potential rise that could see silver passing US$50.4Key factors influencing this outlook include:
  1. Supply-Demand Dynamics:
    Experts anticipate another strong year for silver demand in 2025, with a projected deficit of 215.3 million ounces. This is driven by continued stagnation in supply alongside record industrial demand. The gap between supply and demand is expected to persist, potentially leading to upward price pressure.3
  2. Industrial Demand:
    Silver's industrial applications, particularly in the solar industry, are expected to drive demand. The solar sector is the largest source of industrial consumption for silver, and analysts see continued growth in this area.9
  3. Economic Factors:
    U.S. monetary policy is expected to remain tight into early 2025, which could pose short-term challenges for silver. However, any potential weakness in the U.S. dollar could ease pressure on silver prices.7
  4. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties:
    Analysts caution that broader economic trends could affect silver. There is a risk of significant correction in the markets and a potential recession, which could temporarily impact silver stocks and prices.4
  5. Investment Potential:
    The solid fundamental backdrop is expected to attract more investors, keeping a bid on prices. Silver's performance is closely tied to global industrial production, with its price likely to benefit from an economic recovery in the coming months.9
While the overall outlook is positive, analysts advise investors to be aware of potential volatility and short-term fluctuations. Some analysts believe that silver, currently at $1,018.02 per kilogram, remains undervalued in 2025 compared to its historical prices, suggesting strong investment potential. However, investors should remain aware of short-term fluctuations while considering the long-term bullish prospects.
8


(Perplexity.ai)


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Gold vs. silver: Why silver is a better investment than gold 
https://moneywise.com/u/investing/alternative-investments/gold-vs-silver?irn_option_aditude-auto-inject=true